England vs Costa Rica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Englandvs
Costa RicaOur model leans England (85% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours England (1-1-0).
- +Recent form favours England.
- +England have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours England (1-1-0).
- Recent form favours England.
- England have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 19 | 6 | ||||
| 3 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 9 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between England and Costa Rica. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 85% for England, 4% for the draw and 11% for Costa Rica.
Several signals point toward England. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours England (1-1-0). Recent form favours England.
Across the last 2 meetings, the record reads 1 England wins, 1 draws and 0 Costa Rica wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, England show L-D-W-W-W across their recent outings, while Costa Rica read L-L-D-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 25%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, England or Costa Rica?
Our model rates England as the most likely outcome at 85% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for England vs Costa Rica?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 England wins, 1 draws, 0 Costa Rica wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.