Greece vs Italy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Greecevs
ItalyOur model leans Greece (46% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Italy (0-1-2).
- +Recent form favours Greece.
- +Greece have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Italy (0-1-2).
- Recent form favours Greece.
- Greece have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Greece and Italy. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 46% for Greece, 25% for the draw and 29% for Italy.
Several signals point toward Greece. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Greece. Greece have home advantage.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 0 Greece wins, 1 draws and 2 Italy wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 0-3, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Greece show D-W-D-L-L across their recent outings, while Italy read L-L-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Italy" (1X2): we rate it 29% versus the 27% implied by odds of 3.52, an edge of 2.4 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Greece or Italy?
Our model rates Greece as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Greece vs Italy?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Greece wins, 1 draws, 2 Italy wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.