Deportivo Toluca vs Tigres de la UANL: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Tolucavs
Tigres de la UANLOur model leans Deportivo Toluca (49% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Deportivo Toluca have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Deportivo Toluca have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Deportivo Toluca and Tigres de la UANL. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 49% for Deportivo Toluca, 25% for the draw and 26% for Tigres de la UANL.
Several signals point toward Deportivo Toluca. The odds point to a clear favourite. Deportivo Toluca have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Deportivo Toluca wins, 2 draws and 2 Tigres de la UANL wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 3-1, 1-0, 3-4, 3-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Deportivo Toluca show L-L-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Tigres de la UANL read L-L-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Toluca or Tigres de la UANL?
Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Toluca vs Tigres de la UANL?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Deportivo Toluca wins, 2 draws, 2 Tigres de la UANL wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.