Spain vs Iraq: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Spainvs
IraqOur model leans Spain (93% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Spain have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Spain have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 3 | ||||
| 2 | 21 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 18 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 11 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 6 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Spain and Iraq. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 93% for Spain, 2% for the draw and 5% for Iraq.
Several signals point toward Spain. The odds point to a clear favourite. Spain have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 1 Spain wins, 0 draws and 0 Iraq wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Spain show D-W-D-W-W across their recent outings, while Iraq read W-W-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 16%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Spain or Iraq?
Our model rates Spain as the most likely outcome at 93% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Spain vs Iraq?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Spain wins, 0 draws, 0 Iraq wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.