HJK vs Mariehamn: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
HJKvs
MariehamnOur model leans HJK (80% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours HJK (5-0-1).
- +Recent form favours HJK.
- +HJK have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours HJK (5-0-1).
- Recent form favours HJK.
- HJK have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between HJK and Mariehamn. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 80% for HJK, 7% for the draw and 13% for Mariehamn.
Several signals point toward HJK. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours HJK (5-0-1). Recent form favours HJK.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 HJK wins, 0 draws and 1 Mariehamn wins. Recent scorelines: 0-1, 8-2, 0-4, 2-1, 1-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, HJK show W-L-D-W-L across their recent outings, while Mariehamn read L-L-D-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 29%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, HJK or Mariehamn?
Our model rates HJK as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for HJK vs Mariehamn?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 HJK wins, 0 draws, 1 Mariehamn wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter Turku | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16:7 | 23 |
| 2 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:9 | 19 |
| 3 |  AC Oulu | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 4 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8:6 | 13 |
| 5 | HJK | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:8 | 12 |
| 6 |  Turun Palloseura | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:8 | 12 |
| 7 |  Ilves | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 9 |
| 8 |  Gnistan | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 9 |  Lahti | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 10 |  FF Jaro | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7:15 | 7 |
| 11 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:11 | 6 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.