Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dundalkvs
St Patrick's AthleticThe model heavily favors a draw at 72% probability, supported by compressed bookmaker odds (1.28). While Dundalk holds home advantage, the weight of evidence points to a stalemate in this Leinster Senior Cup tie.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Dundalk have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Draw probability of 72% dominates the forecast, with tight odds at 1.28 reflecting market consensus
- Goal expectancy leans low with a 1-1 scoreline suggested, though under 2.5 goals shows modest odds of 1.112
- Dundalk's home advantage (7% win probability) is outweighed by draw signals; St Patrick's Athletic represent real value at 4.27 for an away win (21% implied)
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The data presents a highly asymmetric match profile. Bookmaker odds of 1.28 for the draw compress a 72% model probability into attractive territory—a rare alignment between analytical forecast and betting market. This convergence suggests strong confidence in a stalemate outcome.
Dundalk enters with home advantage, a recognized edge in knockout football, yet this is the weaker of two competing signals. The draw's dominance implies defensive organization or tactical balance will prevent a clear victor, with the low-goals lean (1-1 hint) suggesting cautious, perhaps attritional play.
St Patrick's Athletic at 4.27 for the away win carries 21% probability—meaningful odds-to-model value if you believe the away side can break the deadlock. Conversely, a Dundalk victory sits at just 7%, making the 15.2 odds a speculative longshot for home bettors rather than a live proposition.
The under 2.5 goals line at 1.112 odds (low payout) reflects the same low-scoring bias embedded in the 1-1 forecast. This is a cautionary reminder: favorable draw odds do not guarantee goals or excitement. Approach stake sizing accordingly and remember model confidence, while high at 1.0, reflects historical patterns—not certainty.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dundalk or St Patrick's Athletic?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 72% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athletic?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.