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Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C

S.E.R. Caxias do Sul vs Ituano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

S.E.R. Caxias do Sul S.E.R. Caxias do SulvsItuano Ituano
Our predictionS.E.R. Caxias do Sul to win
Confidence: Medium · 58/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans S.E.R. Caxias do Sul (49% probability), medium confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · S.E.R. Caxias do Sul49%
Draw20%
2 · Ituano31%
1 · S.E.R. Caxias do SulDraw2 · Ituano
Full team comparison

Recent form

S.E.R. Caxias do SulDWDDD
ItuanoWWWLD
Team strength rating
S.E.R. Caxias do Sul
63
Ituano
58

Most likely scorelines

1-111.8%
1-011.7%
2-19.5%
2-09.5%
0-17.3%
0-07.3%

Expected goals

1.62S.E.R. Caxias do Sul
xG
1.01Ituano
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score51%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
S.E.R. Caxias do Sul Ituano

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2S.E.R. Caxias do Sul win1.78Fair (-2.1%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07741
1121262
291052
3553
4221
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Ituano3.13+1.5%
1X2Draw4.55+0.5%
1X2S.E.R. Caxias do Sul1.78-2.1%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between S.E.R. Caxias do Sul and Ituano. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 49% for S.E.R. Caxias do Sul, 20% for the draw and 31% for Ituano.

Several signals point toward S.E.R. Caxias do Sul. The odds point to a clear favourite. S.E.R. Caxias do Sul have home advantage.

Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 2 S.E.R. Caxias do Sul wins, 1 draws and 2 Ituano wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 1-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, S.E.R. Caxias do Sul show D-W-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Ituano read W-W-W-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, S.E.R. Caxias do Sul or Ituano?

Our model rates S.E.R. Caxias do Sul as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for S.E.R. Caxias do Sul vs Ituano?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 5 meetings: 2 S.E.R. Caxias do Sul wins, 1 draws, 2 Ituano wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C - First stage
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Paysandu851215:917
2Brusque851213:717
3Ituano852112:816
4Guarani841315:715
5Amazonas843111:713
6Maringa Futebol Clube843118:1913
7S.E.R. Caxias do Sul83237:512
8Floresta EC832310:912
9Associacao Atletica Internacional83239:812
10Ferroviaria83238:812
11Santa Cruz PE83327:611
12Maranhao Atletico Clube83329:1111
13Ypiranga834111:1310
14Barra822410:710
15Volta Redonda82425:98
16Figueirense82426:128
17Confianca82514:77
18Botafogo da Paraíba82608:136
19Associacao Olímpica de Itabaiana81436:126
20Anápolis81616:134
Promotion - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C (Second stage) Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série D

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.