S.E.R. Caxias do Sul vs Ituano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans S.E.R. Caxias do Sul (49% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Ituano.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +S.E.R. Caxias do Sul have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Ituano.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- S.E.R. Caxias do Sul have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between S.E.R. Caxias do Sul and Ituano. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 49% for S.E.R. Caxias do Sul, 20% for the draw and 31% for Ituano.
Several signals point toward S.E.R. Caxias do Sul. The odds point to a clear favourite. S.E.R. Caxias do Sul have home advantage.
Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 2 S.E.R. Caxias do Sul wins, 1 draws and 2 Ituano wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, S.E.R. Caxias do Sul show D-W-D-D-D across their recent outings, while Ituano read W-W-W-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, S.E.R. Caxias do Sul or Ituano?
Our model rates S.E.R. Caxias do Sul as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for S.E.R. Caxias do Sul vs Ituano?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 S.E.R. Caxias do Sul wins, 1 draws, 2 Ituano wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C - First stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 17 | |
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:7 | 17 | |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 16 | |
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | 13 | |
| 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:19 | 13 | |
| 7 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 | |
| 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:9 | 12 | |
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | 12 | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 12 | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 | |
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 11 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 | |
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:7 | 10 | |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5:9 | 8 | |
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6:12 | 8 | |
| 17 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4:7 | 7 | |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8:13 | 6 | |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:12 | 6 | |
| 20 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.