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Ethiopia. Premier League

Fasil Kenema vs Shaggar City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Fasil Kenema Fasil KenemavsShaggar City Shaggar City
Our predictionShaggar City to win
Confidence: Low · 16/100
Score hint: 1-2

Our model leans Shaggar City (36% probability), low confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Fasil Kenema31%
Draw34%
2 · Shaggar City36%
1 · Fasil KenemaDraw2 · Shaggar City
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Shaggar City2.69+2.2%
1X2Fasil Kenema2.88-0.6%
1X2Draw2.54-1.6%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-112.6%
1-09.7%
0-19.7%
2-18.2%
1-28.1%
0-07.5%
Team strength rating
Fasil Kenema
39
Shaggar City
53

Recent form

Fasil KenemaLLLWD
Shaggar CityWLLDD

Expected goals

1.30Fasil Kenema
xG
1.30Shaggar City
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Fasil Kenema Shaggar City

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Shaggar City win2.69Fair (+2.2%)
Double chanceShaggar City or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
071063
11013841
26852
3342
41
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Fasil Kenema and Shaggar City. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 31% for Fasil Kenema, 34% for the draw and 36% for Shaggar City.

Several signals point toward Shaggar City. Recent form favours Shaggar City.

Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Fasil Kenema wins, 1 draws and 0 Shaggar City wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Fasil Kenema show L-L-L-W-D across their recent outings, while Shaggar City read W-L-L-D-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Shaggar City" (1X2): we rate it 36% versus the 33% implied by odds of 2.69, an edge of 2.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Fasil Kenema or Shaggar City?

Our model rates Shaggar City as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Fasil Kenema vs Shaggar City?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 1 meetings: 0 Fasil Kenema wins, 1 draws, 0 Shaggar City wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Ethiopia. Premier League
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Sidama Bunna331671038:2058
2Defence Force Addis Ababa331361442:2453
3Negele Arsi331371332:2552
4Ethio Electric331191327:2246
5Ethiopian Buna3312111036:3646
6Fasil Kenema331191324:2646
7Hawassa City3311101232:2645
8Bahir Dar Kenema33961826:2345
9Wolaitta Dicha33981632:2943
10Saint-George Addis Abeba3311121026:2943
11Ethiopian Insurance33991528:2542
12CBE SA3310111240:3842
13Hadiya Hossana3310111228:3242
14Shaggar City33891629:2940
15Welwalo Adigrat339111329:3340
16Adama City338101530:3339
17Midre Genet Shire338121320:2737
18Dire Dawa City337121421:3635
19Mekelle 70 Enderta337131323:3534
20Arba Minch335141425:4029
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification) Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.