Fasil Kenema vs Shaggar City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Shaggar City (36% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Shaggar City.
- −Fasil Kenema have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Shaggar City.
- Fasil Kenema have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Fasil Kenema and Shaggar City. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 31% for Fasil Kenema, 34% for the draw and 36% for Shaggar City.
Several signals point toward Shaggar City. Recent form favours Shaggar City.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Fasil Kenema wins, 1 draws and 0 Shaggar City wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Fasil Kenema show L-L-L-W-D across their recent outings, while Shaggar City read W-L-L-D-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Shaggar City" (1X2): we rate it 36% versus the 33% implied by odds of 2.69, an edge of 2.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fasil Kenema or Shaggar City?
Our model rates Shaggar City as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fasil Kenema vs Shaggar City?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Fasil Kenema wins, 1 draws, 0 Shaggar City wins.
League table
Ethiopia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 38:20 | 58 | |
| 2 | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 42:24 | 53 | |
| 3 | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 32:25 | 52 | |
| 4 | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 27:22 | 46 | |
| 5 | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 36:36 | 46 | |
| 6 | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 24:26 | 46 | |
| 7 | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 32:26 | 45 | |
| 8 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 26:23 | 45 | |
| 9 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 32:29 | 43 | |
| 10 | 33 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 26:29 | 43 | |
| 11 | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 28:25 | 42 | |
| 12 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 40:38 | 42 | |
| 13 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 28:32 | 42 | |
| 14 | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 29:29 | 40 | |
| 15 | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 29:33 | 40 | |
| 16 | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 30:33 | 39 | |
| 17 | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 20:27 | 37 | |
| 18 | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 21:36 | 35 | |
| 19 | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 23:35 | 34 | |
| 20 | 33 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 25:40 | 29 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.