Midre Genet Shire vs Hadiya Hossana: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Hadiya Hossana (39% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Hadiya Hossana (0-2-2).
- +Recent form favours Hadiya Hossana.
- −Midre Genet Shire have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Hadiya Hossana (0-2-2).
- Recent form favours Hadiya Hossana.
- Midre Genet Shire have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Midre Genet Shire and Hadiya Hossana. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 32% for Midre Genet Shire, 29% for the draw and 39% for Hadiya Hossana.
Several signals point toward Hadiya Hossana. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Hadiya Hossana (0-2-2). Recent form favours Hadiya Hossana.
Across the last 4 meetings, the record reads 0 Midre Genet Shire wins, 2 draws and 2 Hadiya Hossana wins. Recent scorelines: 3-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Midre Genet Shire show D-L-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Hadiya Hossana read D-W-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Hadiya Hossana" (1X2): we rate it 39% versus the 34% implied by odds of 2.63, an edge of 4.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Midre Genet Shire or Hadiya Hossana?
Our model rates Hadiya Hossana as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Midre Genet Shire vs Hadiya Hossana?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 0 Midre Genet Shire wins, 2 draws, 2 Hadiya Hossana wins.
League table
Ethiopia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 38:20 | 58 | |
| 2 | 33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 42:24 | 53 | |
| 3 | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 32:25 | 52 | |
| 4 | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 27:22 | 46 | |
| 5 | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 36:36 | 46 | |
| 6 | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 24:26 | 46 | |
| 7 | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 32:26 | 45 | |
| 8 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 26:23 | 45 | |
| 9 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 32:29 | 43 | |
| 10 | 33 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 26:29 | 43 | |
| 11 | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 28:25 | 42 | |
| 12 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 40:38 | 42 | |
| 13 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 28:32 | 42 | |
| 14 | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 29:29 | 40 | |
| 15 | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 29:33 | 40 | |
| 16 | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 30:33 | 39 | |
| 17 | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 20:27 | 37 | |
| 18 | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 21:36 | 35 | |
| 19 | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 23:35 | 34 | |
| 20 | 33 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 25:40 | 29 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.