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Ethiopia. Premier League

Midre Genet Shire vs Hadiya Hossana: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Midre Genet Shire Midre Genet ShirevsHadiya Hossana Hadiya Hossana
Our predictionHadiya Hossana to win
Confidence: Medium · 51/100
Score hint: 1-2

Our model leans Hadiya Hossana (39% probability), medium confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Midre Genet Shire32%
Draw29%
2 · Hadiya Hossana39%
1 · Midre Genet ShireDraw2 · Hadiya Hossana
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Hadiya Hossana2.63+4.9%
1X2Midre Genet Shire2.65-2.1%
1X2Draw2.82-2.8%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Midre Genet ShireDLLLD
Hadiya HossanaDWLLD
Team strength rating
Midre Genet Shire
36
Hadiya Hossana
55

Most likely scorelines

1-112.6%
0-19.9%
1-09.5%
1-28.3%
2-18.0%
0-07.5%

Expected goals

1.26Midre Genet Shire
xG
1.33Hadiya Hossana
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Midre Genet Shire Hadiya Hossana

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Hadiya Hossana win2.63Value (+4.9%)
Double chanceHadiya Hossana or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
071073
1913841
26852
3332
41
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Midre Genet Shire and Hadiya Hossana. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 32% for Midre Genet Shire, 29% for the draw and 39% for Hadiya Hossana.

Several signals point toward Hadiya Hossana. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Hadiya Hossana (0-2-2). Recent form favours Hadiya Hossana.

Across the last 4 meetings, the record reads 0 Midre Genet Shire wins, 2 draws and 2 Hadiya Hossana wins. Recent scorelines: 3-1, 1-1, 0-1, 0-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Midre Genet Shire show D-L-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Hadiya Hossana read D-W-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Hadiya Hossana" (1X2): we rate it 39% versus the 34% implied by odds of 2.63, an edge of 4.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Midre Genet Shire or Hadiya Hossana?

Our model rates Hadiya Hossana as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Midre Genet Shire vs Hadiya Hossana?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 4 meetings: 0 Midre Genet Shire wins, 2 draws, 2 Hadiya Hossana wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Ethiopia. Premier League
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Sidama Bunna331671038:2058
2Defence Force Addis Ababa331361442:2453
3Negele Arsi331371332:2552
4Ethio Electric331191327:2246
5Ethiopian Buna3312111036:3646
6Fasil Kenema331191324:2646
7Hawassa City3311101232:2645
8Bahir Dar Kenema33961826:2345
9Wolaitta Dicha33981632:2943
10Saint-George Addis Abeba3311121026:2943
11Ethiopian Insurance33991528:2542
12CBE SA3310111240:3842
13Hadiya Hossana3310111228:3242
14Shaggar City33891629:2940
15Welwalo Adigrat339111329:3340
16Adama City338101530:3339
17Midre Genet Shire338121320:2737
18Dire Dawa City337121421:3635
19Mekelle 70 Enderta337131323:3534
20Arba Minch335141425:4029
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification) Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.