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Ethiopia. Premier League

Wolaitta Dicha vs Negele Arsi: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Wolaitta Dicha Wolaitta DichavsNegele Arsi Negele Arsi
Our predictionWolaitta Dicha to win
Confidence: Medium · 43/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Wolaitta Dicha (36% probability), medium confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Wolaitta Dicha36%
Draw30%
2 · Negele Arsi34%
1 · Wolaitta DichaDraw2 · Negele Arsi
Full team comparison
Team strength rating
Wolaitta Dicha
52
Negele Arsi
47

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%
1-010.3%
0-19.0%
2-18.7%
1-27.6%
0-07.4%

Recent form

Wolaitta DichaDDWLD
Negele ArsiDLLWD

Expected goals

1.39Wolaitta Dicha
xG
1.22Negele Arsi
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Wolaitta Dicha Negele Arsi

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Wolaitta Dicha win2.57Fair (+0.6%)
Double chanceWolaitta Dicha or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07952
1101283
27952
3342
411
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Wolaitta Dicha2.57+0.6%
1X2Draw3.02-0.3%
1X2Negele Arsi2.62-0.3%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Wolaitta Dicha and Negele Arsi. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 36% for Wolaitta Dicha, 30% for the draw and 34% for Negele Arsi.

Several signals point toward Wolaitta Dicha. The odds point to a clear favourite. Wolaitta Dicha have home advantage.

Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Wolaitta Dicha wins, 1 draws and 0 Negele Arsi wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Wolaitta Dicha show D-D-W-L-D across their recent outings, while Negele Arsi read D-L-L-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Wolaitta Dicha or Negele Arsi?

Our model rates Wolaitta Dicha as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Wolaitta Dicha vs Negele Arsi?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 1 meetings: 0 Wolaitta Dicha wins, 1 draws, 0 Negele Arsi wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Ethiopia. Premier League
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Sidama Bunna331671038:2058
2Defence Force Addis Ababa331361442:2453
3Negele Arsi331371332:2552
4Ethio Electric331191327:2246
5Ethiopian Buna3312111036:3646
6Fasil Kenema331191324:2646
7Hawassa City3311101232:2645
8Bahir Dar Kenema33961826:2345
9Wolaitta Dicha33981632:2943
10Saint-George Addis Abeba3311121026:2943
11Ethiopian Insurance33991528:2542
12CBE SA3310111240:3842
13Hadiya Hossana3310111228:3242
14Shaggar City33891629:2940
15Welwalo Adigrat339111329:3340
16Adama City338101530:3339
17Midre Genet Shire338121320:2737
18Dire Dawa City337121421:3635
19Mekelle 70 Enderta337131323:3534
20Arba Minch335141425:4029
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification) Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.