Joinville vs Guarany Bage: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Joinvillevs
Guarany BageOur model leans Joinville (53% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Guarany Bage.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Joinville have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Guarany Bage.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Joinville have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Joinville and Guarany Bage. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 53% for Joinville, 11% for the draw and 36% for Guarany Bage.
Several signals point toward Joinville. The odds point to a clear favourite. Joinville have home advantage.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 1 Joinville wins, 1 draws and 1 Guarany Bage wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 2-1, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Joinville show D-L-L-D-L across their recent outings, while Guarany Bage read D-W-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Joinville or Guarany Bage?
Our model rates Joinville as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Joinville vs Guarany Bage?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Joinville wins, 1 draws, 1 Guarany Bage wins.
Match statistics
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.