Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeirasvs
Cerro PortenoThe model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 71%. The model leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cerro Porteno have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 1.315.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 71%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Cerro Porteno at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 1.315. The draw is priced at 4.98. Cerro Porteno is priced at 10.5.
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Cerro Porteno have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Cerro Porteno have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras or Cerro Porteno?
Our model rates Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins, 1 draws, 1 Cerro Porteno wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.