Independiente Medellin vs CR Vasco da Gama: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Independiente Medellinvs
CR Vasco da GamaThe model puts Independiente Medellin at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- CR Vasco da Gama have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Independiente Medellin is priced at 2.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Independiente Medellin at 41%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Independiente Medellin is priced at 2.32. The draw is priced at 3.2. CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 3.22.
CR Vasco da Gama have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 27% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Independiente Medellin or CR Vasco da Gama?
Our model rates Independiente Medellin as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Independiente Medellin vs CR Vasco da Gama?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.