Ecuador vs Guatemala: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ecuadorvs
GuatemalaOur model leans Ecuador (82% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ecuador (3-0-0).
- +Ecuador have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Ecuador (3-0-0).
- Ecuador have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Ecuador and Guatemala. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 82% for Ecuador, 6% for the draw and 13% for Guatemala.
Several signals point toward Ecuador. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Ecuador (3-0-0). Ecuador have home advantage.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 3 Ecuador wins, 0 draws and 0 Guatemala wins. Recent scorelines: 0-2, 2-0, 2-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Ecuador show L-D-D-L-D across their recent outings, while Guatemala read L-L-L-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 29%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ecuador or Guatemala?
Our model rates Ecuador as the most likely outcome at 82% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ecuador vs Guatemala?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 3 Ecuador wins, 0 draws, 0 Guatemala wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.