Mirassol vs Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mirassolvs
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de QuitoThe model puts Mirassol at 52%. The model leans toward Mirassol. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mirassol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mirassol have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mirassol is priced at 1.76.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mirassol at 52%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Mirassol. Mirassol is priced at 1.76. The draw is priced at 3.38. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito is priced at 5.25.
Mirassol have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mirassol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mirassol or Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito?
Our model rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Mirassol wins, 0 draws, 1 Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.