Bolivar vs Gremio Porto Alegrense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bolivarvs
Gremio Porto AlegrenseThe model puts Bolivar at 59%. The model leans toward Bolivar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Gremio Porto Alegrense.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bolivar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bolivar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bolivar is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bolivar at 59%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Bolivar. Bolivar is priced at 1.65. The draw is priced at 4.06. Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 4.96.
Bolivar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Bolivar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Gremio Porto Alegrense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bolivar or Gremio Porto Alegrense?
Our model rates Bolivar as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bolivar vs Gremio Porto Alegrense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Bolivar wins, 0 draws, 1 Gremio Porto Alegrense wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.