Sporting Cristal vs Red Bull Bragantino: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting Cristalvs
Red Bull BragantinoThe model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sporting Cristal.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting Cristal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Red Bull Bragantino have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 2.16.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting Cristal at 31%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Red Bull Bragantino. Sporting Cristal is priced at 3.38. The draw is priced at 3.38. Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 2.16.
Sporting Cristal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Sporting Cristal are on 4 wins in a row. Red Bull Bragantino have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting Cristal or Red Bull Bragantino?
Our model rates Red Bull Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Cristal vs Red Bull Bragantino?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.