Genoa vs Napoli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Genoavs
NapoliThe model puts Napoli at 55%. The model leans toward Napoli. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Napoli.
- +The head-to-head record favours Napoli (1-5-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Genoa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Napoli have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Genoa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Napoli is priced at 1.825.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Genoa at 18%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Napoli at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Napoli. Genoa is priced at 4.96. The draw is priced at 3.28. Napoli is priced at 1.825.
Genoa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Napoli have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Genoa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Napoli have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Genoa or Napoli?
Our model rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Genoa wins, 5 draws, 9 Napoli wins.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lecce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Bologna 1909 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a24a7dd5e99bd05c636d2c0 |
| 3 |  Frosinone Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 4 | Genoa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Udinese Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 7 |  Monza 1912 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 8 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 9 |  Unione Venezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 10 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 11 |  Internazionale Milano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Juventus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 13 |  Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 14 |  Milan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  Lazio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a24a7dd5e99bd05c636d2c0 |
| 17 |  Cagliari Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Torino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 19 |  Parma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 20 |  Como | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.