St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Johnstonevs
KilmarnockThe model puts St. Johnstone at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Kilmarnock.
- −The head-to-head record favours Kilmarnock (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Johnstone have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Johnstone have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Johnstone is priced at 2.17.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Johnstone at 41%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Kilmarnock at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward St. Johnstone. St. Johnstone is priced at 2.17. The draw is priced at 3.4. Kilmarnock is priced at 3.205.
St. Johnstone have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Kilmarnock have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
St. Johnstone have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Kilmarnock have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Johnstone or Kilmarnock?
Our model rates St. Johnstone as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 St. Johnstone wins, 0 draws, 4 Kilmarnock wins.
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dundee United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Heart of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  St. Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Dundee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | St. Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.