Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aberdeenvs
Heart of MidlothianThe model puts Heart of Midlothian at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Aberdeen.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Aberdeen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aberdeen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Heart of Midlothian is priced at 2.19.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Aberdeen at 33%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Heart of Midlothian at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Heart of Midlothian. Aberdeen is priced at 3.065. The draw is priced at 3.52. Heart of Midlothian is priced at 2.19.
Aberdeen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Aberdeen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Aberdeen are on 2 wins in a row. Heart of Midlothian have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aberdeen or Heart of Midlothian?
Our model rates Heart of Midlothian as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aberdeen vs Heart of Midlothian?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Aberdeen wins, 1 draws, 3 Heart of Midlothian wins.
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dundee United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  St. Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Dundee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  St. Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.