Serbia vs Netherlands: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Serbiavs
NetherlandsThe model puts Netherlands at 57%. The model leans toward Netherlands. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Netherlands.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Serbia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Netherlands have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Netherlands is priced at 1.74.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Serbia at 20%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Netherlands at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Netherlands. Serbia is priced at 4.52. The draw is priced at 3.9. Netherlands is priced at 1.74.
Netherlands have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Serbia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Netherlands have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Netherlands are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Serbia or Netherlands?
Our model rates Netherlands as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Serbia vs Netherlands?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Serbia wins, 0 draws, 1 Netherlands wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.