Krasnodar vs Akhmat: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Krasnodarvs
AkhmatThe model puts Krasnodar at 59%. The model leans toward Krasnodar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Krasnodar.
- −The head-to-head record favours Akhmat (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Krasnodar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Akhmat have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Krasnodar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Krasnodar is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Krasnodar at 59%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Akhmat at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Krasnodar. Krasnodar is priced at 1.63. The draw is priced at 4.12. Akhmat is priced at 5.05.
Krasnodar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Akhmat have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Krasnodar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Akhmat have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Krasnodar or Akhmat?
Our model rates Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Krasnodar vs Akhmat?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Krasnodar wins, 0 draws, 4 Akhmat wins.
League table
Russian Cup (Group Stage)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Orenburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Rubin Kazan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Rodina Moscow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.