Russian Cup

Spartak Moscow vs Orenburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Spartak Moscowvs

Orenburg

Our predictionSpartak Moscow to win

Model score: High · 82/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Spartak Moscow at 70%. The model leans toward Spartak Moscow. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Orenburg (1-1-4).

Win probabilities

1 · Spartak Moscow70%Draw17%2 · Orenburg14%

1 · Spartak MoscowDraw2 · Orenburg

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.89+14.1%

1X2Orenburg8.40+2.3%

1X2Draw5.50-0.6%

1X2Spartak Moscow1.32-1.7%

BTTSYes1.83-14.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Spartak MoscowWLLLW

OrenburgWLLLD

Team strength rating

Spartak Moscow

Orenburg

Most likely scorelines

2-015.7%

1-014.7%

3-011.2%

2-18.5%

1-17.9%

0-06.9%

Expected goals

2.13Spartak Moscow

0.54Orenburg

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score37%

Match DNA

Spartak Moscow Orenburg

Key points

Spartak Moscow have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Orenburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Spartak Moscow have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Spartak Moscow is priced at 1.325.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Spartak Moscow win1.32Fair (-1.7%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	4	1
1	15	8	2
2	16	8	2
3	11	6	2
4	6	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Spartak Moscow at 70%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Orenburg at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Spartak Moscow. Spartak Moscow is priced at 1.325. The draw is priced at 5.5. Orenburg is priced at 8.4.

Spartak Moscow have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Orenburg have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Spartak Moscow have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Orenburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →