Russian Cup

Fakel Voronezh vs Dynamo Moscow: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Fakel Voronezhvs

Dynamo Moscow

Our predictionDynamo Moscow to win

Model score: Medium · 50/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Dynamo Moscow at 48%. The model leans toward Dynamo Moscow. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Dynamo Moscow.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Fakel Voronezh26%Draw26%2 · Dynamo Moscow48%

1 · Fakel VoronezhDraw2 · Dynamo Moscow

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.11+4.9%

1X2Dynamo Moscow2.02+0.9%

1X2Draw3.58-0.4%

1X2Fakel Voronezh3.60-0.6%

BTTSYes1.67-4.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Fakel VoronezhLLLDW

Dynamo MoscowLDWWW

Team strength rating

Fakel Voronezh

Dynamo Moscow

Most likely scorelines

1-112.3%

0-111.5%

1-29.2%

0-28.7%

1-08.1%

0-07.6%

Expected goals

1.06Fakel Voronezh

1.51Dynamo Moscow

Over 2.5 goals47%

Both teams to score51%

Match DNA

Fakel Voronezh Dynamo Moscow

Key points

Fakel Voronezh have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Dynamo Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fakel Voronezh have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Dynamo Moscow is priced at 2.016.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Dynamo Moscow win2.02Fair (+0.9%)

Double chanceDynamo Moscow or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	12	9	4	2
1	8	12	9	5	2
2	4	7	5	2
3	2	2	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Fakel Voronezh at 26%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Dynamo Moscow at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Dynamo Moscow. Fakel Voronezh is priced at 3.6. The draw is priced at 3.58. Dynamo Moscow is priced at 2.016.

Fakel Voronezh have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Dynamo Moscow have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Fakel Voronezh have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dynamo Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →