Russian Cup

Rodina Moscow vs Rubin Kazan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Rodina Moscowvs

Rubin Kazan

Our predictionRubin Kazan to win

Model score: Low · 23/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Rubin Kazan at 46%. The model leans toward Rubin Kazan. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Rodina Moscow29%Draw25%2 · Rubin Kazan46%

1 · Rodina MoscowDraw2 · Rubin Kazan

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.15+4.9%

1X2Rodina Moscow3.34+0.5%

1X2Draw3.76+0.2%

1X2Rubin Kazan2.05-0.7%

BTTSYes1.64-4.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-112.4%

0-110.9%

1-29.0%

1-08.6%

0-27.9%

0-07.6%

Team strength rating

Rodina Moscow

Rubin Kazan

Recent form

Rodina MoscowWWLWL

Rubin KazanWLWDW

Expected goals

1.14Rodina Moscow

1.44Rubin Kazan

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Rodina Moscow Rubin Kazan

Key points

Rodina Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rubin Kazan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rodina Moscow have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Rubin Kazan is priced at 2.048.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Rubin Kazan win2.05Fair (-0.7%)

Double chanceRubin Kazan or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	11	8	4	1
1	9	12	9	4	2
2	5	7	5	2
3	2	3	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Rodina Moscow at 29%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Rubin Kazan at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Rubin Kazan. Rodina Moscow is priced at 3.34. The draw is priced at 3.76. Rubin Kazan is priced at 2.048.

Rodina Moscow have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Rubin Kazan have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Rodina Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Rodina Moscow are on 2 wins in a row. Rubin Kazan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →