Russian Cup

Lokomotiv Moscow vs CSKA Moscow: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Lokomotiv Moscowvs

CSKA Moscow

Our predictionCSKA Moscow to win

Model score: Low · 24/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts CSKA Moscow at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours CSKA Moscow (2-0-4).

Win probabilities

1 · Lokomotiv Moscow36%Draw27%2 · CSKA Moscow37%

1 · Lokomotiv MoscowDraw2 · CSKA Moscow

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.22+5.3%

1X2CSKA Moscow2.62+1.1%

1X2Lokomotiv Moscow2.63-0.2%

1X2Draw3.42-0.9%

BTTSYes1.60-5.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Lokomotiv MoscowLDWLW

CSKA MoscowDWLLL

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

1-010.0%

0-19.3%

2-18.4%

1-27.9%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Lokomotiv Moscow

CSKA Moscow

Expected goals

1.34Lokomotiv Moscow

1.25CSKA Moscow

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Lokomotiv Moscow CSKA Moscow

Key points

Lokomotiv Moscow have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
CSKA Moscow have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lokomotiv Moscow have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
CSKA Moscow is priced at 2.616.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2CSKA Moscow win2.62Fair (+1.1%)

Double chanceCSKA Moscow or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	9	6	2
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2
3	3	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Lokomotiv Moscow at 36%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts CSKA Moscow at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. Lokomotiv Moscow is priced at 2.635. The draw is priced at 3.42. CSKA Moscow is priced at 2.616.

Lokomotiv Moscow have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. CSKA Moscow have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.

Lokomotiv Moscow have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. CSKA Moscow have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →