Norway vs Portugal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Norwayvs
PortugalThe model puts Portugal at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Portugal.
- −The head-to-head record favours Norway (3-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Norway have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portugal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Norway have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Portugal is priced at 2.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Norway at 33%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Portugal at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Norway is priced at 2.86. The draw is priced at 3.66. Portugal is priced at 2.32.
Norway have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Portugal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Norway have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Portugal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Portugal are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Norway or Portugal?
Our model rates Portugal as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Norway vs Portugal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 3 Norway wins, 0 draws, 1 Portugal wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.