CSKA Sofia vs Derry City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CSKA Sofiavs
Derry CityThe model puts CSKA Sofia at 78%. The model leans toward CSKA Sofia. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- CSKA Sofia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Derry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia is priced at 1.207.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | ||||
| 2 | 19 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts CSKA Sofia at 78%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Derry City at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward CSKA Sofia. CSKA Sofia is priced at 1.207. The draw is priced at 5.85. Derry City is priced at 14.7.
Derry City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CSKA Sofia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Derry City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 27% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CSKA Sofia or Derry City?
Our model rates CSKA Sofia as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CSKA Sofia vs Derry City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 CSKA Sofia wins, 1 draws, 1 Derry City wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.