Georgia vs Ukraine: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Georgiavs
UkraineThe model puts Ukraine at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Georgia.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ukraine (0-2-4).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Georgia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ukraine have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ukraine is priced at 2.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Georgia at 34%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Ukraine at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Georgia is priced at 2.87. The draw is priced at 3.34. Ukraine is priced at 2.46.
Ukraine have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Georgia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ukraine have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Georgia or Ukraine?
Our model rates Ukraine as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Georgia vs Ukraine?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Georgia wins, 2 draws, 4 Ukraine wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Republic of North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.