Brazil vs Japan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Brazilvs
JapanThe model puts Brazil at 53%. The model leans toward Brazil. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Japan (1-0-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Brazil have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Japan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brazil have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Brazil is priced at 1.77.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Brazil at 53%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Japan at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Brazil. Brazil is priced at 1.77. The draw is priced at 3.75. Japan is priced at 5.1.
Brazil have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Japan have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Brazil have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Japan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Brazil average 2 goals per game this season. Brazil average 54% possession. Japan average 3 goals per game this season. Japan average 51% possession.
The model gives 73% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Brazil or Japan?
Our model rates Brazil as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Brazil vs Japan?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Brazil wins, 0 draws, 5 Japan wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.