Wimbledon vs Newport County: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The model puts Wimbledon at 58%. The model leans toward Wimbledon. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Wimbledon.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Wimbledon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newport County have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wimbledon have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Wimbledon is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Wimbledon at 58%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Newport County at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Wimbledon. Wimbledon is priced at 1.66. The draw is priced at 4.05. Newport County is priced at 4.595.
Wimbledon have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Newport County have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Wimbledon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Wimbledon are on 3 wins in a row. Newport County have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Wimbledon or Newport County?
Our model rates Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Wimbledon vs Newport County?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Wimbledon wins, 4 draws, 1 Newport County wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.