Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tranmere Roversvs
RochdaleThe model puts Rochdale at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Tranmere Rovers.
- +The head-to-head record favours Rochdale (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tranmere Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rochdale have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tranmere Rovers have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rochdale is priced at 2.31.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tranmere Rovers at 35%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Rochdale at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Tranmere Rovers is priced at 2.82. The draw is priced at 3.18. Rochdale is priced at 2.31.
Tranmere Rovers have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Rochdale have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tranmere Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Rochdale have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tranmere Rovers or Rochdale?
Our model rates Rochdale as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Tranmere Rovers wins, 2 draws, 3 Rochdale wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Tranmere Rovers
- 2Senior
- 3Slater J.
- 4Turnbull J.
- 5Smith N.
- 7Whitaker
- 8Finley S.
- 9Ironside
- 11Conlon
- 12Male
- 15Davies Jor.
- 22O'Connor Lee
Rochdale
- 1Ramming
- 4Henry East R.
- 6Ebanks-Landell
- 7Hayes
- 8Gilmour H.
- 9Dieseruvwe
- 13Adebayo-Rowling
- 14Francis E.
- 19Hannant
- 26Sherring
- 27Bilongo
Match story
How the game unfoldedAn end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Whitaker (4'), Henry East R. (11')). Score moves to 1–1.
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 1–1.
Half-time score: Tranmere Rovers 1 – 1 Rochdale.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.