York City vs Crawley Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
York Cityvs
Crawley TownThe model puts York City at 57%. The model leans toward York City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- York City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crawley Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- York City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- York City is priced at 1.591.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts York City at 57%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Crawley Town at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward York City. York City is priced at 1.591. The draw is priced at 3.72. Crawley Town is priced at 4.925.
York City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Crawley Town have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
York City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Crawley Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, York City or Crawley Town?
Our model rates York City as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for York City vs Crawley Town?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 York City wins, 3 draws, 2 Crawley Town wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.