Swansea City vs Birmingham City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Swansea Cityvs
Birmingham CityThe model puts Birmingham City at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Birmingham City.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Birmingham City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Swansea City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Birmingham City have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Swansea City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Swansea City will be without Franco.
- Birmingham City will be without Ducksch, Paik S., Gray Dem..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Swansea City at 32%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Birmingham City at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Swansea City is priced at 2.921. The draw is priced at 3.3. Birmingham City is priced at 2.37.
Swansea City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Birmingham City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.
Swansea City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Birmingham City have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Birmingham City are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Swansea City or Birmingham City?
Our model rates Birmingham City as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Swansea City vs Birmingham City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Swansea City wins, 8 draws, 4 Birmingham City wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.