Burnley vs Notts County: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The model puts Burnley at 67%. The model leans toward Burnley. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Notts County.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Burnley have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Notts County have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Burnley have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Burnley is priced at 1.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Burnley at 67%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Notts County at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Burnley. Burnley is priced at 1.34. The draw is priced at 4.85. Notts County is priced at 8.7.
Burnley have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Notts County have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Burnley have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Notts County have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Burnley or Notts County?
Our model rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Burnley vs Notts County?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Burnley wins, 2 draws, 2 Notts County wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.