Cardiff City vs Swindon Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cardiff Cityvs
Swindon TownThe model puts Cardiff City at 74%. The model leans toward Cardiff City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Cardiff City (5-2-0).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cardiff City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Swindon Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cardiff City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cardiff City is priced at 1.29.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cardiff City at 74%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Swindon Town at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Cardiff City. Cardiff City is priced at 1.29. The draw is priced at 5.5. Swindon Town is priced at 9.05.
Cardiff City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cardiff City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Cardiff City are on 3 wins in a row. Swindon Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Swindon Town are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 32% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cardiff City or Swindon Town?
Our model rates Cardiff City as the most likely outcome at 74% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cardiff City vs Swindon Town?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 5 Cardiff City wins, 2 draws, 0 Swindon Town wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.