Crewe Alexandra vs Accrington Stanley: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Crewe Alexandravs
Accrington StanleyThe model puts Crewe Alexandra at 51%. The model leans toward Crewe Alexandra. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Accrington Stanley.
- +The head-to-head record favours Crewe Alexandra (9-2-4).
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Crewe Alexandra have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Accrington Stanley have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crewe Alexandra have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Crewe Alexandra is priced at 1.83.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Crewe Alexandra at 51%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Accrington Stanley at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Crewe Alexandra. Crewe Alexandra is priced at 1.83. The draw is priced at 3.55. Accrington Stanley is priced at 4.18.
Crewe Alexandra have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Accrington Stanley have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Crewe Alexandra have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Accrington Stanley have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Crewe Alexandra or Accrington Stanley?
Our model rates Crewe Alexandra as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Crewe Alexandra vs Accrington Stanley?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Crewe Alexandra wins, 2 draws, 4 Accrington Stanley wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.