Derby County vs Lincoln City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Derby Countyvs
Lincoln CityThe model puts Derby County at 46%. The model leans toward Derby County. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Derby County have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lincoln City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Derby County have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Derby County is priced at 2.04.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Derby County at 46%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Lincoln City at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Derby County. Derby County is priced at 2.04. The draw is priced at 3.5. Lincoln City is priced at 3.435.
Derby County have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Lincoln City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Derby County have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lincoln City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Derby County or Lincoln City?
Our model rates Derby County as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Derby County vs Lincoln City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 2 Derby County wins, 2 draws, 3 Lincoln City wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.