Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fleetwood Townvs
ChesterfieldThe model puts Chesterfield at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fleetwood Town have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chesterfield have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Chesterfield is priced at 2.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Fleetwood Town at 35%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Chesterfield at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fleetwood Town is priced at 2.71. The draw is priced at 3.22. Chesterfield is priced at 2.55.
Fleetwood Town have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Chesterfield have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fleetwood Town have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Chesterfield have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fleetwood Town or Chesterfield?
Our model rates Chesterfield as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Fleetwood Town wins, 5 draws, 5 Chesterfield wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.