Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rot-Weiss Essenvs
St. PauliThe model puts St. Pauli at 44%. The model leans toward St. Pauli. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Rot-Weiss Essen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiss Essen have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Pauli is priced at 2.125.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Rot-Weiss Essen at 29%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts St. Pauli at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward St. Pauli. Rot-Weiss Essen is priced at 3.34. The draw is priced at 3.52. St. Pauli is priced at 2.125.
Rot-Weiss Essen have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Pauli have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rot-Weiss Essen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rot-Weiss Essen or St. Pauli?
Our model rates St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rot-Weiss Essen vs St. Pauli?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Rot-Weiss Essen wins, 1 draws, 2 St. Pauli wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.