France vs Sweden: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Francevs
SwedenThe model puts France at 76%. The model leans toward France. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours France.
- +The head-to-head record favours France (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- France have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sweden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France is priced at 1.331.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts France at 76%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Sweden at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward France. France is priced at 1.331. The draw is priced at 5.73. Sweden is priced at 11.1.
France have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Sweden have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
France have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. France are on 4 wins in a row. Sweden have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
France average 3 goals per game this season. France average 55% possession. Sweden average 1 goals per game this season. Sweden average 49% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, France or Sweden?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for France vs Sweden?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 France wins, 0 draws, 2 Sweden wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.