Germany vs Paraguay: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Germanyvs
ParaguayThe model puts Germany at 69%. The model leans toward Germany. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Germany have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paraguay have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Germany have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Germany is priced at 1.423.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Germany at 69%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Paraguay at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 4-1.
The market leans toward Germany. Germany is priced at 1.423. The draw is priced at 5.08. Paraguay is priced at 8.6.
Germany have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Germany have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Paraguay have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Germany average 5 goals per game this season. Germany average 62% possession. Paraguay average 1 goals per game this season. Paraguay average 28% possession.
The model gives 65% for both teams to score. The model gives 89% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Germany or Paraguay?
Our model rates Germany as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Germany vs Paraguay?
A scoreline around 4-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Germany wins, 1 draws, 0 Paraguay wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.