Belgium vs France: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Belgiumvs
FranceThe model puts France at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Belgium.
- +The head-to-head record favours France (2-3-6).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Belgium have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgium have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France is priced at 2.22.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Belgium at 30%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts France at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Belgium is priced at 3.23. The draw is priced at 3.1. France is priced at 2.22.
Belgium have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. France have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Belgium have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. France have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Belgium or France?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Belgium vs France?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 2 Belgium wins, 3 draws, 6 France wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Belgium | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.