Northern Ireland vs Hungary: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Northern Irelandvs
HungaryThe model puts Hungary at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Hungary.
- +The head-to-head record favours Hungary (1-1-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Northern Ireland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hungary have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Northern Ireland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hungary is priced at 2.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Northern Ireland at 32%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Hungary at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Northern Ireland is priced at 2.7. The draw is priced at 2.8. Hungary is priced at 2.8.
Northern Ireland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Hungary have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Northern Ireland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Hungary have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Hungary are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Northern Ireland or Hungary?
Our model rates Hungary as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Northern Ireland vs Hungary?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Northern Ireland wins, 1 draws, 3 Hungary wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Republic of North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.