Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Seattle Soundersvs
Portland TimbersThe model puts Seattle Sounders at 64%. The model leans toward Seattle Sounders. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Seattle Sounders score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Seattle Sounders creates more chances (17 vs 13 shots per game).
- −Seattle Sounders are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Portland Timbers are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Seattle Sounders will be without Arriola, Gomez Y., Kim K.H., Petkovic, Roldan A., De La Vega P., Roldan C., Sailor.
- Portland Timbers will be without Chara D., Fernandez, Guerra, McGraw, Barrera Jo., Velde, Mosquera.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Seattle Sounders at 64%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Portland Timbers at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Seattle Sounders. Seattle Sounders is priced at 1.53. The draw is priced at 4.68. Portland Timbers is priced at 5.35.
Seattle Sounders have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Portland Timbers have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Portland Timbers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Seattle Sounders average 2 goals per game this season. Seattle Sounders average 53% possession. Portland Timbers average 1 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 48% possession.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Seattle Sounders or Portland Timbers?
Our model rates Seattle Sounders as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Seattle Sounders wins, 3 draws, 1 Portland Timbers wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.