AGF Aarhus vs Brondby: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AGF Aarhusvs
BrondbyThe model puts AGF Aarhus at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours AGF Aarhus.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brondby have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AGF Aarhus have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AGF Aarhus is priced at 2.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AGF Aarhus at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Brondby at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. AGF Aarhus is priced at 2.26. The draw is priced at 3.54. Brondby is priced at 2.918.
AGF Aarhus have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Brondby have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
AGF Aarhus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Brondby have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AGF Aarhus or Brondby?
Our model rates AGF Aarhus as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 AGF Aarhus wins, 2 draws, 2 Brondby wins.
League table
Denmark. Superliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SonderjyskE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Silkeborg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | AGF Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Brondby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Horsens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Lyngby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Nordsjaelland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Odense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Randers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Viborg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.