Lugano vs Vaduz: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Luganovs
VaduzThe model puts Lugano at 63%. The model leans toward Lugano. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lugano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vaduz have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lugano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lugano is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lugano at 63%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Vaduz at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Lugano. Lugano is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 4.4. Vaduz is priced at 6.25.
Lugano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Vaduz have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lugano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Vaduz have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Vaduz are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lugano or Vaduz?
Our model rates Lugano as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lugano vs Vaduz?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Lugano wins, 2 draws, 2 Vaduz wins.
League table
Switzerland. SuperLeague| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lausanne-Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Servette | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Basel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Young Boys | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Zurich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Grasshopper Club Zurich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Luzern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Sion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  St. Gallen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Vaduz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.