WSG Tirol vs Sturm Graz: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
WSG Tirolvs
Sturm GrazThe model puts Sturm Graz at 52%. The model leans toward Sturm Graz. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sturm Graz.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sturm Graz (2-0-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- WSG Tirol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- WSG Tirol have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sturm Graz is priced at 1.89.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts WSG Tirol at 24%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Sturm Graz at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sturm Graz. WSG Tirol is priced at 3.785. The draw is priced at 3.64. Sturm Graz is priced at 1.89.
WSG Tirol have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Sturm Graz have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
WSG Tirol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sturm Graz have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Sturm Graz are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, WSG Tirol or Sturm Graz?
Our model rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for WSG Tirol vs Sturm Graz?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 WSG Tirol wins, 0 draws, 4 Sturm Graz wins.
League table
Austria. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WSG Tirol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Grazer AK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Wolfsberger AC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Hartberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Austria Wien | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  LASK Linz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Rapid Wien | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Ried | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Rheindorf Altach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Sturm Graz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Austria Lustenau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.