Mexico vs England: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mexicovs
EnglandThe model puts England at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Mexico have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- England have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mexico have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- England is priced at 2.521.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mexico at 30%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts England at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Mexico is priced at 3.29. The draw is priced at 3.175. England is priced at 2.521.
Mexico have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mexico have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. England have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mexico average 2 goals per game this season. Mexico average 49% possession. England average 2 goals per game this season. England average 67% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mexico or England?
Our model rates England as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mexico vs England?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Mexico wins, 0 draws, 0 England wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.