Mirassol vs Gremio Porto Alegrense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mirassolvs
Gremio Porto AlegrenseThe model puts Mirassol at 51%. The model leans toward Mirassol. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Mirassol.
- +Mirassol creates more chances (16 vs 8 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head record favours Gremio Porto Alegrense (0-0-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Mirassol have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mirassol is priced at 1.975.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mirassol at 51%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Mirassol. Mirassol is priced at 1.975. The draw is priced at 3.4. Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 3.94.
Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mirassol have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mirassol average 1 goals per game this season. Mirassol average 50% possession. Gremio Porto Alegrense average 1 goals per game this season. Gremio Porto Alegrense average 51% possession.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mirassol or Gremio Porto Alegrense?
Our model rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Gremio Porto Alegrense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Mirassol wins, 0 draws, 3 Gremio Porto Alegrense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 | Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.